Election Forecasting

It’s not too early to start handicapping the 2012 Presidential election. Hell, here in Illinois we need to start thinking about 2016 and replacing our idiot Senator Kirk or Gianoulias (assuming the winner doesn’t get recalled /  impeached /  convicted).

My GOP candidate predictions:

NOT GOING TO BE ON TICKET:

Palin (damaged goods…will never get the center vote).

Giuliani (too bad, would do a great job but ran a poor campaign…if terrorism becomes top issue he could change course).

Romney (Massachusetts health care is a DISASTER….he refuses to admit the mistake and can’t run on repeal of Obamacare without it).

Huckabee (a tax and spend liberal in GOP clothing…TEA party will tear him apart).

Newt Gingrich (might be the smartest guy in the group but he’s a jerk…ego destroyed him right on heels of “Contract with America” victory…he appeared in a global warming ad with Nancy Pelosi).

Maybe:

Mitch Daniels ( a little bland and that is a big problem but his state is doing great due to his fiscal maneuvers).

Bobby Jindal (has charisma but shot himself in the foot with a horrible speech last year…he can overcome that with a great speech and did will with oil spill).

Bob McDonnell (Virginia governor has a lot to prove).

Haley Barbour (most GOP governors have a chance).

Paul Ryan (smart and well spoken but young…maybe next time or a VP).

Better:

Tim Pawlenty (not perfect but might have right combo of stances on issues and charisma).

Chris Christie (New Jersey governor is template for new era candidate…he is standing up to unions, refuses to raise taxes even on “millionaires” and instead of promising voters candy is telling them we all need to take harsh medicine to fix our problems-and they love him for it. He will need to explain why he can go presidential before finishing his first term. He is smart and a great speaker. He is also fat. Very fat. He should lose some weight and show he can stay healthy for a full term in office. Dems will be well advised not to make it an issue though.)

Lastly, GOP candidate needs a flawless VP running mate. I suggest Sen. Tom Coburn of Oklahoma.

Also keep an eye on Michelle Bachman…she is smart and charismatic and understands the power of TEA party and how their message resonates with independents who will provide the swing votes in future elections.

Dems may try to have Hillary challenge Obama. I hope so. I want that party to tear itself to shreds and rebuild without Barney Frank, Reid , Pelosi, Dodd, Durbin and myriad other bums.

Obama is toast. He fooled a lot of people by running as centrist with vague message. They now know what many of us knew 2 years ago: he is an America-hating socialist with sympathetic views toward radical Islam. He has insulted our allies, especially Britain and Israel while reaching out to enemies. 60 Dem senators voting for socialism via health care shows a party completely out of touch with American majority. GOP blew it under both Bushes with spending increases and expanded entitlements. They paid for it in last 2 elections, now Dems will suffer.  Growth of public sector unions with employees earning double private sector and bureaucrats retiring at 50 with huge six figure pensions will be a major issue going forward. Democrats own that scandal and will have to figure out how to win elections without giving the unions everything they want.

“Stimulus” is dead. Keynesian economics is dead. It didn’t work for FDR and it is a disaster now. Candidates from any party better get with the program.  The American has always done best with less government involvement.

Pat Duggan